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Here is what is currently happening.
Entry comments: Could price be ready to drop for a 3rd level of release today? It has stop hunted past Asian high, with the 100 MA on H4 able to hold down prices at 1.4998. It is a rushed analysis with my mistake being not analysing it in depth around 10 am my time. Price is in spaghetti on 15M with 200 holding prices down on this TF too. I may be looking at things to validate my short only? Though it is a sound sell. I am a bit unconfident.
Exit comments: (In hindsight ofcrs) price ended up accumulating orders (possibly for the reversal to take prices higher) in a 45 pip range (less than half its ADR) at the low of previous day. Again like USDCAD, its already at cheap prices with 2 levels of pushes having been made to the downside and price being down for 3 straight days. Don't pay too much attention to MA unless at the end of exhausted levels of pushes, river pull backs or break and retests of spaghetti indicating continuation. No play
Entry comments: Expecting the 3rd level of drop. Ideally it comes in the form of ADR being reached today by NY with prices working the prev. day high of 1.2997. Again, with the R at this level of the 800 MA on H1 + Psych. level and on the 4H the 800 and 200 MA are married here, reaching it would be the ideal short. If this is out of reach, another ideal short would be 200 MA on H1 with the 800 MA on 15M with a short-term supply zone of 16/10 to get short into.
Exit comments: Get much better at managing the trade once I'm in it (constant re-assessment to see if the initial reason I entered is still in line with my overall bias). With NY open barely flinching and the indecision bar followed by the break separating the river right after, that was not in line with overall bias at all. Daily TF price has been down 4 days w/ 200 MA + Daily wick S. Also relied too much on the Resistance that was present 1.3000 but not on the low of the last week (wasn't even plotted)
Entry comments: 2 level rise to high of prev. week after the bearish move of 12/10 which cleared the board, these levels don't mean anything as long as its unable to break the high of 1.3257. An aggressive stop hunt to the high of previous day coming together with the 800 MA on 4H would be the ideal short. Though price may move off of the short-term supply zones based off 16/10. Target is the supply zone at 1.3035.
Exit comments: Price couldn't even reach the supply zones and so the limit orders were never hit. 18 pips off as price moved off Asian high right at 10:00 for a 90 pip drop. Good short
Entry comments: With price exhausting at 15/10, making one push up 16/10 and not being able to break the low of previous day on 17/10, maintaining the HL through Asia, a break and retest of spaghetti is looking to be bought. 'Whats down there' bar at 20:00 16/10 was worked off in Asia today, showing similarities to the 'whats down there' bar today in Asia.
Exit comments: The 'whats down there bar' is all good and great, but its 40 pips away from the low of that day (16/10). The ideal long would be after the stop hunt or after exhaustion of several pushes, I have neither here, though the stop hunt COULD be anticipated below 1.8400 ideally or below 1.83816. The HL doesn't mean nothing but a trap for rt unless the market is already showing signs of trending. And thats what price did, stop hunted the life out of both lows in 1st hr on London, and went back up.
Entry comments: Stocahstics are about to be peaked. 55 MA is reached and price may exhaust off it. 3 levels of drive on the 4H and 1H are clear. Price has topped at 0.65955 and exhausted and shouldn't break it unless for a stop hunt to start going down.
Exit comments: 0.65955 was stop hunted. My entry at 0.6590 was due to my concern of possibly not getting filled, but remember to place my limit at the best possible price always, and place another one at a less better price if I think I might not be filled (Adjust for risk as a result accordingly). ALSO: Stop taking profits so fast. Use the ADR to my advantage and let a push really play out to its ADR. Taking the meat of the move is one thing, understand also the move that goes together with it though.
Entry comments: I am tempted to short this pair now, at 21:00 nearing the end of the day, but that would not be in line with my trading plan. With the levels of pushes up thus far, price could move too fast to get an entry tomorrow, but have to follow my trading plan. If a unison move of all pairs seems to be setting up tomorrow, enter short at identified R levels.
Exit comments: Waited on the next day to follow my trading plan: Good