Understand that market has 10 days to go ATH (x25000 April 6 282c 1.51 opened Friday) BUT 30 days to drop sub 2700 ($VIX Mar 21st $25c 123.5k at 0.25) and we are gonna get both. If $vix were to pop to 25 to 30 in the next 30 days we likely see sub 2700 hard down to 2650s.
$VIX has just seen a 25-trading-day intraday "draw down" of 36.99 pts. Every single time ('08, '09, '15, '18) VIX has dropped at least 30 pts within 25 trading days, it then spiked up between 6 and 43 pts within the NEXT 25 trading days.
Tariff announcement day last for bush was -0.5/-0.6% which was same for Trump. Following day was+1.5% for both. In 1 month Bush got a -2% in the mkt which is guess what roughly 2680 area on ES yeah the area we did NOT repair last week.
Weekly stats: If we get a draw down this week stats dictate about a 2.5% down draft with 12% of past occurence with no drawdown at all. Ideally ATH happens this week and fast because the bear stats that are lining up right after are fkn juicy.
Daily stats: Monday's SPY stats of staying green at 50/50 so not good odds so wait for concrete signs like OPR15 break outs etc etc. But when QQQs hit ATH, the following Monday being positive is 56.3% of the time and the following full week is positive 59.2% of the time. So decent edge.
They need rotation because Semi-conductors will top this week no questions about it. I like financials for this week.
$SPY & Overall Market
scenario1: I see monday gap up, gap fill then rip to $SPY 282 gap close area followed by 3 days of fuckers than Friday reversal higher and do the delta hedge squeeze
scenario2: $SOX are topped with open gap up, $MU $NVDA etc start getting slapped they let $SPY backtest 275/276 area and back n fill to allocate more idiot shorts who like to get on the bus in the middle of the route. Then red open tuesday followed by a sweet turn around tuesday with senate bank deregulation vote pass. Then bank especially small community banks to the moon. In fact $QABA the small community bank ETF has options :)
scenario3: $SOX are toppy but while $SPY gets the ATH alternative route is for them jones $AAPL to $184+ $AMZN to 1600 $GOOGL to 1200... How else do they keep the $QQQ up?
SPY Trade I am looking for:
Mar 9 QQQ made ATH
SPY 80% chance follows in 10 days
So Mar 23rd SPY should hit ATH
SPY ATH 286.63
SPY currently 278.87
SPY is 2.79% from ATH
Looking to Buy To Open x200 Mar 29 285c <.60
Time target 10:10-10:20AM EST most likely
3/12 eod update: Did not initiate the position. 3 possible outcomes for the SPY so giving it time for a firmer signal. We get to potentially buy a back test of 275/274 so no rush.
If Mkt opens 10+ handles down, buy 1st lot down at LowVolumeNode1 if further weakness scale LowVolumeNode2 than 2pm est ride higher
3/12 eod update: scalped the open as mentioned for a nice 45% gainer trader and closed and right after it closed SPY gave all its gains back :) This behavior was expected stats put it at a 50/50 day with a second stat giving it a 56% green chance as detailed above so green to indecision was what I was looking for on the day. Looking for more action tomorrow.
SPY Market Calendar Outlay
Mar12w OPEX Mon
-> Tuesday 3/13 Senate small bank de-reg vote
-> Tuesday 3/13 CPI #s out if >3% mkt tanks else under 2.3% mkt kazooms higher
Mar14w OPEX Wed
Mar16m OPEX Fri
Mar19w Q FUCKERY WEEK
Mar21w Q FUCKERY WEEK
Mar23w Q FUCKERY WEEK *SPY ATH
Mar26w QOPEX Mon
Mar28w QOPEX Wed
Mar29q QOPEX Thu
Apr9w M FUCKERY WEEK
Apr11w M FUCKERY WEEK
Apr13w M FUCKERY WEEK
Apr16w OPEX Wed
Apr20m OPEX Fr
NOTABLE UNUSUAL OPTIONS
Week-Ending Friday, Mar 9
XOM Jun 77.5c 1.70 x5006 $850K
MSFT Jan19 $100c
KR Mar23 24c SSR
ALXN May 130c 9.6 sell Jul 155c
AABA Jul 87.5c -> Financial Services
BZUN Oct18 40c 11.352 x500 $568K
STZ April 240c / Julys now at 230
EDIT Big Sweeper activity
STOCKS ON WATCH
3/11 $SOXS - $SOX x3 Short - Keep this handy... Plenty in Semi-conductors to short after we top this week...
3/12 eod update: 7th straight day of runs so not yet... #patience
[ACTIVE TRADE] 3/12 $MU Well it ran up over 10% intraday. Just insane. $COMPQ nasdaq composite is but a few points away from the 2010 to 2018 wave 3 monthly top... I am early but have the weekly 58puts which are in -50% pain at the moment as I calculated 60 to be resistance... This is gonna be a fight and likely wont come to fruition until thursday/friday unless CPI comes in hot and market tanks... Anyway gonna look to either roll the position up and out or scalp around the code we'll see.
3/11 $TSLA look for green to red unless short-term sizable call buyers are detected. As is this is a short down to 300s in next week at minimum cant be a reliable long until Elon Musk compentation vote 2 weeks out is done and gone...
3/12 eod update: well sweeps did come and boy did they give us some major bull run on this over 5%...
3/11 $BABA if China keeps up or how west view the whole president for life deal. overnight asia markets bull galore. 195c <$1.2 for the week way worth the risk or keep it safe go Apr6 192.5c <$5
3/12 eod update: these worked wonderfully today
3/11 $QD if e/r good 17.5c or 20c 0.80 area -> t22 t29 this CAN pull a $BZUN
3/12 eod update: e/r came out decent and rev up 100% y/o/y. Now we watch for sharpies buying more calls and we chase... #patience
3/11 $OKTA doing the same shit $SQ did after e/r... first the pop then vomit... clear blue skies in a day or two very probable
3/12 eod update: not a terrible day... did the wash and then recovered some... giving it a day or two more #patience
3/11 $GS look nobody likes the big ass names alright. But Tuesday another bank deregulation vote in senate that is likely gonna pass. This thing has slapped 272.5 and dropped 10-12 pts right after multiple times in recent weeks so this time might do the charm. Turnaround Tuesday 275c 1.25
3/12 eod update: fantastic on this today. boom and boom. more flow too has more upside need to watch CPI on weakness any price dislocation could be worth loading into senate vote
3/11 $BAC options cheap and after $SOX toppiness this is next RSI high but not at elliott target candidate for rotation and almost all these banks have a cup n handle
[ACTIVE TRADE] 3/12 eod update: fantastic on this today. boom and boom. more flow too has more upside need to watch CPI on weakness any price dislocation could be worth loading into senate vote
3/11$WFC cheapest of them all and further from target...
3/12 eod update: still shitty not much yet here
3/12 $MS flow coming in multiple sweeps this one can go with senate vote as well. Added on watch.
3/11 $NVDA looking for blow top w/ $247.5c ~$3 but might f around until $AVGO e/r Thu night
3/12 eod update: fantastic day on this! it now has a DI buy signal so revising trade plan look for Apr20 $275c around 3/3.5 with a stop at $2
3/11 $BKNG it'll be untouchable with monday premiums but could still have a date with 2200 come friday
3/12 eod update: hit 2218 today lol nuts. Again with those premium i could care less.