Here are some detailed notes to Tim's 5/15/20 webinar.

 

Shorting Over Extended Gap Downs: When shorting Overextended Gap Downs, do you always risk red green? 

On OEGD's there are times when rather risking red green it is better to risk the previous day's high. Especially if the levels are close together. Most of the time Tim will risk red green on OEGD's, but if the levels are close together, then he will use the one that gives him the most conviction.

(Also if the stock goes green and the levels are close together, then cut the loss and short it higher if you are still convicted to do so.)

 

Formula for the Range Retrace on the new reversal pattern:

(High - Previous Day Close) / (High - 5 Day Low Before Run)

 

Afternoon Breakouts and Hod Breaks on $CREX and $GNUS

Afternoon HOD breaks in many cases can also be continuation of Multi Day Breakouts.

$CREX on 5/13/20, the multi day breakout level was at $4.36. It broke around 10:17am E. It immediately snapped back under, then broke through at 10:25. That would have been a good play to buy the $4.36 break because it went on to run to $5.98, but Tim chose not to because it was too much to soon and it was before noon. Hence AfterNOON breakouts. He played the second hod break and it failed.

$GNUS was also on 5/13/20. This was a much better example of a perfect combination on Multi Day Breakout and an Afternoon Hod break where the levels are more aligned. $GNUS mdbo level on 5/13/20 was at $1.03 from 5/7/2020. $1.03 broke around 11am E on 5/13/20. The plan was again to wait for it to break through the new high at $1.07 later on in the day. Again this was a case where the first break of $1.03 was too much too soon. It had run from around $.70 cents to a dollar in less than an hour. So he chose not to buy into strength right there and not to chase into that spike. The plan after the first $1.03 break was to wait and hope that it tops out a little above the breakout and consolidate for a while. That is exactly what $GNUS did. It broke $1.07 at 2:22pm E and that was the buy signal. He added when it broke $1.10. 

He chose not to take off any into the close or after hours. Here is why: In a lot of cases, big momentum stocks that are gapping up after hours, the next morning usually continue to gap up higher. So Tim has been making an effort to sit on his hands until the next day. Unfortunately with $GNUS this was not the case.

Risk:

Risk is based on a dollar amount. If I am risking 10,000 dollars then my stop is calculated like this:

I have 100,000 shares at 1.10. My risk is $1.00

 

Other Notes:

- Large Cap Parabolic's often have frustrating bounces. This is a warning to short sellers and a buy signal to dip buy. Take $VTIQ for example on 5/13/2020. It fell from $35 down to $25 and then bounced back to $32. It did fade the next couple of days, but many shorts got shaken out and they was an incredible dip buy opportunity.