I think modeling successful people is crucial in any field you endeavor to be a success in. You want to model them because they have been there before and done the things you want to do, and in order to model them best you need as much data as you can get your hands on.
While I wish Profitly had features to track every detail I'd like, (Time in trade, Max adverse excursion, Catalyst, Avg $/share profit & loss, etc) those features to my knowledge are absent. So, I am taking it upon myself to do the hard work of plotting Dux's trades on the actual charts to better see what happened during his trades. Unfortunately some of the tickers that have been traded no longer exist, but I am going to do my best to compile intraday and daily charts of each trade, mixed with info about the float, catalyst and volume on the day of the trades. Below is the format of research and record keeping I am on a mission to complete.
I am also very curious on the stats for how long Dux holds winners and losers on average in terms of $/Share. I have only went through his first 100 trades so far (because I'm starting to get a headache) But I see some interesting details already and am curious to see any possible changes along the rest of his journey to a Million.
In Dux's first 100 trades:
There were 71 winners and 29 losers. His average $/share gains on the 74 trades equal to be only 19.3 cents. 11 of the 71 trades were gains of $.25 or more per share, as follows:
$.36, $1.73, $.25, $.27, $.70, $.29, $.84, $.37, $.99, $.28, & $.32
Those 11 outliers equal $18,713 out of the $33,610 total gain on 71 winning trades, or 55.6% of the combined profits. If you exclude those outliers, his average $/share profit per winning trade lowers to 12.1 cents/share, for a total of $13,566. That equals 40.3% of the combined profits on the 71 trades.
First of all, I was surprised to see how mild and Achievable the average gains seemed $/share wise, even with the outliers. The average gain/share of the outliers alone is $.58/share. 9 of the 11 outliers were shorts. I have not researched the charts yet, but we know from the Dux interview that most of his favorite setups are shorts.
Dux's average loss was $.08/share, which put his winners at an average of 2.4 times larger than his losers. Combine that with a 71% winning average and you've got a recipe for success. With the average winner being only $.19/share, you had better cut your losers quickly and that is exactly what seemed to happen in almost all of these first 100 trades. While Dux's largest winner was $6,024, his largest loser was $949 with an average loss of only $141.
There is likely a ton more data that could be researched and extracted from this journey, but the takeaway for me currently is a reinforcement that you don't need to swing for the fences. Consistency in taking realistic gains and cutting losses quickly is all anyone ever needs because the magic of compounding via position sizing will handle the rest. I've long held the conviction that swinging for the fences is how you strike out.
The other takaway is akin to the revelation that Tim and Mark Croock had about Marks trading, where 80% of his profits came from just 6% of his trades. In this instance the numbers are different, (55.6% of Dux's gains came from 15% of his winning trades and 11% of his overall trades) but point to the same principle. I have no way of knowing just yet whether or not Dux highest $/share gains were from the best setups or not, but never the less, I suspect future investigation will prove things along those lines.